Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000 and its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028, citing stronger crypto market activity, a supportive macro backdrop, and the return of ETF inflows. The note, dated September 30 and reported by Reuters on October 1, reverses two cuts Citi made earlier in 2026. Meanwhile, Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, is warning that altcoins could lose 30% to 50% of their value if Bitcoin dominance keeps climbing. Both can't be right - or maybe they both are, which is the part that should make you uncomfortable.

Citi's Case: ETF Flows and Macro Tailwinds

Citi analyst Alex Saunders built the revised targets on three pillars: activity, macro, and ETF flows. The bank now expects $5 billion in inflows into crypto investment products over the next 12 months, replacing its previous assumption of flat net buying. The logic is that financial advisers and brokerages will gradually increase Bitcoin allocations through ETFs, creating a slower but steadier demand floor than the speculative waves of 2025.

The flow data backs that up. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.39 billion during the week ending September 25 - the largest weekly inflow since October 2025 - extending a nine-session streak that totaled about $3.08 billion. Ether products received $689.88 million that same week. The streak broke on September 30 with $148.7 million in net outflows, led by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund pulling $125.6 million. Over the preceding three months, Bitcoin gained nearly 40% and Ethereum 68%, though both remain down roughly 3% and 9% year-to-date. Citi's $113,000 target sits about 10% below Bitcoin's October 2025 record of roughly $126,200.

Saunders also pointed to SEC rulemaking as a factor. The Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act in September had "narrowed the path to a market-structure bill," but subsequent SEC regulatory proposals - including new rules on crypto custody and a nationwide preemption framework - took the edge off the negative sentiment. Citi even acknowledged that a 2028 administration change could reverse agency rules, though it placed that risk outside its forecast horizon.

The Altcoin Warning: Dominance Is the Kill Switch

While Citi paints a rosy picture for the majors, Soloway is looking at the same market and seeing trouble for everything else. His argument hinges on Bitcoin dominance, which he says broke above a long-running downward trend line and then retested it - a pattern that has preceded major market turns before. If dominance keeps climbing, the math gets ugly fast.

A 10% Bitcoin decline could push BTC back to the mid-$70,000 range and drag altcoins down 30% to 40%. A deeper 20% correction could mean a 50% altcoin wipeout. Soloway's key level to watch is $81,000 - a daily close below that would break Bitcoin's current bull flag pattern and open the path toward $70,000. He still believes the cycle low is in, but his short-term view is that sideways or slightly down Bitcoin action could still crush altcoins.

Bitcoin dominance sat around 58-60% entering October, with the altcoin season index near 30, meaning most altcoins are already underperforming Bitcoin. The divergence is widening: institutional money is flowing into Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs, while altcoins are left fighting for scraps.

Two Exploits, One Bad Week for Altcoins

The altcoin space didn't exactly help its own case. NEAR Protocol's cross-chain swap system, NEAR Intents, lost about $3.8 million to an exploit on October 1. The bug sat in the interaction between NEAR Intents' Omni deposit-and-withdrawal infrastructure and its smart contract. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT traced the stolen funds to KuCoin, where they were bridged into Bitcoin. PeckShield flagged that the attacker's address had interacted with a wallet linked to North Korea's Lazarus Group, though no official attribution has been made.

The irony is thick. NEAR Intents had blocked more than $50 million tied to the Bitget hack from being laundered through its solver network just two days earlier. It fended off one attack and then got hit through a different door. The NEAR token fell as much as 8.6% intraday to around $4.92, giving back gains from a September where it had roughly doubled. The exploit also came two days after Bitwise's NEAR ETF began trading in the U.S. - a brutal juxtaposition of progress and setback.

Stacks Bucks the Trend

One altcoin that refused to die was Stacks (STX), which surged 20% to 28% after founder Muneeb Ali was named CEO of Stacks Labs, replacing interim CEO Alex Miller. The rally coincided with the network's Bitcoin staking program entering its expansion phase. Stacks launched its Genesis Bond on September 10, letting institutions lock BTC on Bitcoin L1 alongside an STX position and earn BTC-denominated rewards. By September 24, participants had bonded 230 BTC alongside 310,000 STX, earning 0.28 BTC in weekly rewards. The next bonding period opens October 10 with 500 BTC of capacity - more than double the initial round.

Ali's priorities include bringing more Bitcoin capital onto Stacks, expanding institutional adoption, and pushing toward a 100x throughput increase. Anchorage Digital is building custody infrastructure for institutional participants. The roadmap also lists privacy tools and post-quantum security. Whether any of that justifies a 28% price move in a day is a separate question, but at least Stacks is building something while the rest of the altcoin market waits to see if dominance kills them.

The market right now is split between two stories that don't reconcile neatly. Wall Street sees Bitcoin heading to $113,000 on the back of ETF flows and macro support. Technical analysts see altcoins heading for a 30-50% haircut if Bitcoin dominance keeps rising. Both can be true if the money flowing into ETFs stays concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum while the long tail of altcoins bleeds out. The Citi target is a directional signal, not a timing tool. The altcoin warning is a risk model, not a prophecy. Trade accordingly, and maybe keep some dry powder for when one of them is proven wrong.

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Author: Cedric Holloway
New York Newsroom
Breaking Crypto News

After months of inconsistent institutional demand, U.S. crypto ETFs just produced the kind of week traders have been waiting for. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds collected roughly $2.6 billion in net inflows during the five trading days ending August 21, their strongest combined week since October 2025.

Bitcoin funds took in about $1.92 billion, while spot Ethereum ETFs added roughly $697 million. Both categories posted their best weekly inflow totals of 2026. More importantly, the money arrived during a sharp crypto rally instead of after it was already over.

The reversal was fast. One week earlier, the same two ETF categories had lost about $392 million combined. Going from a $392 million outflow to a $2.6 billion inflow is a week-over-week swing of roughly $3 billion. That is large enough to matter in a market where ETF demand has repeatedly acted as one of the clearest gauges of institutional appetite.

Five Straight Days of Buying

This was not one giant order making the weekly total look impressive. Bitcoin ETFs posted positive flows across all five trading sessions. Monday brought about $298 million, followed by another positive day Tuesday. Wednesday accelerated to roughly $517 million, and Thursday climbed again to about $606 million.

Thursday was the standout. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, absorbed roughly $503 million by itself, accounting for more than 80% of that day's Bitcoin ETF inflows. Fidelity and Bitwise also took in new money, but BlackRock was doing most of the heavy lifting.

By Friday, Bitcoin funds had added another roughly $307 million. Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern throughout the week, finishing with about $697 million in net inflows. The full weekly figures show demand broadening beyond a single fund or a single trading session.

Trading Volume Came Back Too

Flows were not the only number that changed dramatically. Trading volume in the spot Bitcoin ETFs jumped to about $22.1 billion for the week, up from $6.9 billion the week before. Ethereum ETF volume rose to about $6.9 billion from $1.9 billion.

Combined, the two categories traded around $29 billion, more than triple the previous week's level. That matters because a large inflow alongside rising volume gives the move more weight than an isolated creation or redemption event.

Assets under management also jumped. Bitcoin ETF assets rose from roughly $76.6 billion to $96.1 billion, while Ethereum ETF assets climbed from about $10.5 billion to $14.3 billion. Those increases should not be mistaken for pure new buying, however. Most of that asset growth came from Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming more valuable during the week. Only $2.6 billion of it was actual net new ETF money.

The Rally Had Some Powerful Fuel

The ETF buying landed during one of crypto's strongest weeks of the year. Bitcoin briefly moved above $79,000 on Friday and posted its largest weekly gain in roughly two years. Ethereum also rallied sharply, with both assets gaining roughly 24% to 28% during the week.

A major macro catalyst arrived when the U.S. Treasury announced plans to increase purchases of longer-dated government debt. The move helped calm a stressed bond market and contributed to lower yields and a weaker dollar, conditions that quickly improved demand for Bitcoin, gold and other risk-sensitive assets. Reuters reported that crypto stocks rallied alongside Bitcoin after the announcement.

There was also a substantial short squeeze as prices accelerated. That makes the ETF numbers especially useful. Liquidations can force traders to buy whether they want to or not. ETF creations are a different signal. They show fresh capital entering regulated investment products while the rally is happening.

BlackRock Is Still the 800-Pound Gorilla

The flow breakdown again showed how much influence BlackRock now has over the institutional Bitcoin market. IBIT received about $503 million on Thursday and another roughly $239 million Friday. BlackRock's Ethereum fund, ETHA, was also one of the largest destinations for Ethereum ETF money.

That concentration is worth watching. Strong ETF demand is bullish for the underlying assets, but a large share of that demand continues to come through a small number of giant issuers. When IBIT has a particularly strong or weak day, it can move the headline number for the entire ETF category.

2026 Is Still in the Red

One great week has not erased the damage from earlier in the year. Despite the latest inflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain roughly $2.9 billion in net outflows for 2026. Ethereum ETFs are still down around $192 million for the year.

The improvement is still significant. Before last week's rebound, the combined year-to-date deficit for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was around $5.7 billion. It is now closer to $3.1 billion.

That gives traders a clean metric to watch next. If ETF inflows continue while prices consolidate, the rally gains a stronger foundation. If flows disappear as soon as the price momentum cools, last week may turn out to have been a very enthusiastic reunion rather than a lasting return of institutional demand.

For now, the important change is simple: regulated crypto funds are attracting serious money again, and they did it for five straight trading days while Bitcoin and Ethereum were already moving higher. After a year dominated by ETF outflows, that is a market signal worth paying attention to.

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Author: Ren Nakamura
Asia Newsroom
Breaking Crypto News